We investigate the relationship between the gas spot market and the price of gas storage capacity. Contrary to the common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than by the winter-summer price differences. This paper...

This paper presents a simple framework for the analysis, valuation and simulation of several real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information. Information costs can be viewed as sunk costs in the spirit of Merton's (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete...

We examine the impact on an R&D valuation and its investment timing of abrupt events, options facing paradise (blockbusters) and purgatory (catastrophes). We show that the presence of a special case of Lévy jumps can model positive and negative effects in the investment opportunity even when...

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty about input parameters on the accuracy of real option valuation. It compares the error from no-arbitrage valuation with the error from using DCF. Despite the theoretical superiority of no-arbitrage valuation it is shown to be less accurate than...

R&D is often a highly uncertain venture where experiments achieve successful outcomes on an extraordinarily rare basis. Just one successful product could change the future of a company; the discovery stage can often be an invaluable or disastrous experience. We develop a real R&D option model...

We derive closed-form expressions to price European calls and puts assuming the cash flows of the underlying asset or project are normally distributed. This approach has important advantages in the context of real options applied to infrastructure projects when compared to the Black-Scholes...

I show that the irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of a pandemic.The case for lockdown strategies becomes stronger...

We develop a real options model in which a firm exposed to seasonal variations in its output price is able to produce output, store it, and sell it later, separating the production and selling decisions. The model suggests that the optimal policy for a firm with low inventory costs is to spread...

We propose a parsimonious general equilibrium extension of the Black-Scholes economy that helps clarify how options' prices, expected returns, risk exposure, and optimal exercise policies respond to variations in the risk exposure of the underlying asset. The model allows one to separate the...

The binomial model presents a set of properties that make it a suitable approach in order to value the real options, throughout an easy and practical application. This is possible by the adaptation of the valuation principle for non-arbitrage, own of the options pricing theory. However, their...