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thereby providing enough time to investors for implementing investment strategies. It would also align the domestic market … Indian Stock Markets in terms of its time varying nature and presence of certain characteristics such as day of the week …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122200
This paper studies the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model in which the regression coefficients are random … walk latent states with time dependent conditional variances. This TVP model is flexible to accommodate a wide variety of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219850
type of seasonality is analyzed. Based on analyses in the time and the frequency domains, the main intuitive conclusion is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014123856
, or including a Phillips curve. We then pool the estimates using three weighting schemes. We compute both ex-post and real-time … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380402
macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that … accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … unobserved components time series model with a common cycle that is shared across different time series but adjusted for phase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
This paper investigates multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of key macro aggregate data. We find (a) inflation seems to be dominated by its trend component, and, perhaps as a result of this, the short-term interest rate is also trend dominated; and (b) consumption also seems to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342928
, or including a Phillips curve. We then pool the estimates using three weighting schemes. We compute both ex-post and real-time … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226
macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that … accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … unobserved components time series model with a common cycle that is shared across different time series but adjusted for phase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723648
We compare a number of widely used trend-cycle decompositions of output in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. This is motivated by the often markedly different results from these decompositions — different decompositions have broad implications for the relative importance of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017878
This paper provides an underlying reason for why recent Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of U.S. real GDP differ despite using identical unobserved components models. We stress that a pitfall in estimating unobserved components models accounts for the divergence in the empirical conclusions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934793