In response to a request from the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission, we propose a model to estimate default probabilities for bonds issued by cities. The model can be used with financial data available in Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports that cities are required to...

Ten years after the Securities and Exchange Commission mandated the conversion of corporate financial statements to machine-readable formats, there is still no analogous mandate for state and local government Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs). We explore the challenges and benefits...

Could a Puerto Rico-style financial crisis hit a Canadian province. In this previously unpublished update to my 2012 analysis of Canadian provincial default risks, I compare fiscal conditions in Ontario and Québec with those of Puerto Rico and neighboring US states. I also propose the use of...

My research team collected cost of issuance information from Official Statements representing over 800 bond issuances since 2012. We found that costs of issuance including underwriter discounts averaged 1.02% of bond principal. Further, we found substantial variation in the sample, with six...

La deuda excesiva que enfrenta el sector público de Puerto Rico es el resultado involuntario de una serie de decisiones de política pública hechas a partir del 1898 cuando los Estados Unidos tomó posesión de la isla. En lugar de encaminar a Puerto Rico hacia la estadidad, el Congreso de los...

In recent decades, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has assumed increasing premarket authority for drugs and devices. Given how the FDA s regulatory stance has inhibited breakthroughs in the development of medical products, it appears that the agency will stand in the way of emerging...

After remaining relatively stable between 2004 and 2010, Medicaid spending as a proportion of overall state expenditure has been rising in the current decade. This trend may be expected to continue in the states participating in Medicaid expansion as the federal share of spending on newly...

The high and rising cost of US medical care is partially attributable to legally enforced rigidities in the health care system. By relaxing restrictions, the government can unlock competitive forces that drive prices down and empower individuals to avoid unnecessary, expensive medical services....

In the aftermath of the 2007-08 global financial crisis, regulators and policy makers recognized the importance of making bond ratings publicly available. Although rating agencies have made some data available, obtaining this information in bulk can be difficult or impossible. At some times, the...

The essays collected for this publication are designed to provide readers and particularly those in Ontario a better sense of where the province's debt stands today, the expectations for the future, and warnings about the likely costs of inaction. Part of the motivation for this publication was...