Problem/Relevance - This paper presents new description of the business cycles that for decades remain as relevant and important economic problem. Research Objective/Questions - We propose that econometrics can provide sufficient data for assessments of risk ratings for almost all economic...

This paper describes macroeconomic surface-like waves on economic space. We model macroeconomics as ensemble of economic agents and use their risk ratings as coordinates on economic space. Aggregates of agent's economic variables at point x define macroeconomic variables as functions of x on...

This paper develops parallels between economics and physics and describes macroeconomics as multi-agent systems on economic space alike to multi-particle systems. Economic agents play roles of simple units of macroeconomics alike to “economic particles” and agent's risk ratings define their...

This paper introduces Economic Space notion to expand capacity for economic and financial modeling. Introduction of Economic Space allows define economic variables as functions of time and coordinates and opens the way for treating economic and financial relations similar to mathematical physics...

This paper describes macroeconomics as multi-agent system alike to multi-particle system. Economic agents are treated as simple units of macroeconomics on economic space. Risk ratings of economic agents play role of their coordinates on economic space. Aggregates of economic variables of...

We show how time-series of random market trade values and volumes completely describe stochasticity of stock returns. We derive equation that links up returns with current and past trade values and show how statistical moments of the trade values and volumes determine statistical moments of...

This paper presents new approach to financial modeling and forecasting that is based on economic space notion. Economic space is defined as generalization of risk ratings and allows boost methods and description of financial processes. Risk ratings of economic agents are treated as coordinates...

This paper considers asset price as a random variable during the averaging interval Δ and introduces the market-based price probability. We substitute the problem of guessing the “correct” form of the asset price probability by approximate description of random price properties by the...

Macroeconomic variables are composed by agent’s variables. In turn, sums of agent’s trade values or volumes determine evolution of agent’s variables. In conclusion, agent’s expectations govern agent’s trade decisions. We consider economic agents, agent’s variables, agent’s trades...

The consideration of an averaging interval Δ of market trade time-series change the basic consumption-based asset pricing equation. The duration of Δ determines Taylor series of investor’s utility over current and future values of consumption. We present consumption at current and future...