This paper explores how US partisan conflict impacts the cash management decisions of US firms. Using a sign restrictions approach to identify structural shocks to partisan conflict, we find that an exogenous 10% rise in the Partisan Conflict Index above trend is associated with a 0.4 percentage...

This paper explores how US partisan conflict impacts the cash management decisions of US firms. Using a sign restrictions approach to identify structural shocks to partisan conflict, we find that an exogenous 10% rise in the Partisan Conflict Index above trend is associated with a 0.4 percentage...

This paper highlights the international transmission of political uncertainty originated from a US partisan conflict shock, a newly identified shock that transmits a type of uncertainty beyond the economic policy uncertainty spillovers identified by Colombo (2013). Using the recently developed...

Using U.S. data over the period 1960Q3 - 2019Q4 we estimate a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive model and find that a one standard deviation shock to macroeconomic uncertainty generates declines in state-level employment growth that range from -0.02 to -0.12 percentage points at...

This paper provides robust evidence for the non-linear effects of mortgage spread shocks during recessions and expansions in the United States. Estimating a smooth-transition VAR model, we show that mortgage spread shocks hitting in recessionary regimes create significantly deeper and more...