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A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503717
empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is … not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return … predictability, which we label ``dividend momentum.'' Compared to estimation based on OLS, our restricted informative prior leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210806
empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is … not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return … predictability, which we label "dividend momentum." Compared to estimation based on ordinary least squares, our restricted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311587
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001617689
We examine stock prices and the number of stocks traded around ex-dividend dates of German stocks with tax …-free dividend. Tax-free dividends are temporarily tax-exempt, as they reduce the initial purchasing price of a stock. With our … empirical results indicate that ex-date prices decline, on average, by the amount of the dividend. We do not find a significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291925
between the price dividend ratio, expected stock returns and expected dividend growth in the US since 1880. We find a … significant increase in the long-run equilibrium value of the price dividend ratio over time, associated with a fall in the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
The equity premium of the S&P 500 Index is explained in this paper by several variables that can be grouped into fundamental, behavioral and macroeconomic factors. We hypothesize that the statistical significance of these variables changes across economic regimes. The three regimes we consider...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128024
The predictive ability of the dividend-price ratio for future stock returns does not necessarily imply that dividend …-price ratios predict future stock prices. Stock returns consist of both a capital gain and a dividend yield component, and we show … that predictability of stock returns by lagged dividend-price ratios mainly reflects predictability of future dividend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131071
This paper develops a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to measure intangible capital stock and studies the implied riskiness of market value of capital. The equilibrium of the economy is characterized by a state-space representation of dynamic system. Kalman filter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134479
stock return volatilities, and without a stable cash dividend policy, stock return volatilities may unrelated to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113475