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There is a perception that IMF programmes are not catalytic and instead associated with large capital outflows, higher refinancing costs for sovereigns and adverse movements in stock markets. This has led to concerns that an expectation of adverse effects of IMF programmes may deter countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846238
In the policy debate on the effectiveness of the Global Financial Safety Net, concerns have been raised that expectations of adverse effects of IMF programmes may deter countries from asking for an IMF programme when they need one, a form of "IMF stigma". We explore the existence of IMF...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928948
We propose a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze the relationship between global factors and country-specific capital flow dynamics. Studying a global sample of 43 countries from 1994 until 2015, we show that global co-movement of macroeconomic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929696
We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012129742
We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012132563
financial markets world-wide gained importance during the post-crisis "second phase of global liquidity" (Shin, 2013). The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316994
This paper highlights a recent ‘great moderation' in global capital flows, characterized by smaller volumes and lower volatility of cross-border transactions. However, there are substantial differences across countries and regions which we analyse by comparing the level of international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983089
The paper discusses the currents that led to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We discuss the crisis in a historical context and present evidence regarding the incidence and unit price of risk. Our results show that the unit price of risk prior to the subprime crisis is comparable to the price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014197315
the rest of the world cannot explain the U.S. current account deficits, especially in the 1980s and the 2000s. This is … because on a GDP- weighted basis, the rest of the world actually had higher productivity growth during these periods, and … standard macroeconomic models would predict an outflow of funds from the U.S. to the rest of the world, and a consequent U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014222785
We extend the sudden stops literature by allowing crisis episodes to be caused by either the retreat of global investors, as is assumed but not shown in the extant literature, or the sudden flight of local investors. We find that almost half of the previously defined sudden stops are actually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014054471