In this article, the reliability of first (flash) quarterly national account data estimates compiled and released by the National Statistical Service of Greece is examined. The reliability of the flash quarterly estimates is assessed through a set of standard statistics measuring the size,...

The main purpose of this paper was to achieve a judicious blend and an effective conjunction of purely judgmental forecasts and mechanical projections which take into account the determinants of inflation. The empirical results of the paper suggest that, for the current as well as for the...

Over the last 15 years the Greek economy has made significant progress towards macroeconomic stability with a remarkable degree of inflation containment both in levels and volatility. These changes in inflation dynamics have implications for the short term forecasting of inflation. This paper...

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

The paper analyses the dynamic response of inflation to various economic shocks and investigates the sources of inflation persistence through a set of counter factual simulations. Analysis shows that inflation seems to be more persistent in Greece than, on average, in Euro Area. Inflation...

The present paper presents a quarterly econometric model for the Greek economy, the GR-MCM model. The model has been developed as part of a larger project within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), the Multi-Country Model (MCM). The model combines short-run Keynesian dynamics determined...

At the Bank of Greece econometric modelling started in 1975 when the Bank’s first model of the Greek economy was developed under the leadership of the now Governor of the Bank Nicholas C. Garganas. The model was extensively used for many years in forecasting as well as in policy analysis and...

Using a state space formulation developed by Stock and Watson and Garratt and Hall we construct an indicator, which then is interpreted as a measure of the underlying economic activity of the Greek economy. The chief novelty of the paper is that the underlying model is calibrated, rather than...

This paper analyses the response of inflation in the euro area to five macroeconomic shocks through the use of results derived from Eurosystem large-scale macroeconomic models. The main finding is that only a fiscal shock, and to a lesser extent a TFP shock, generate marked inflation...