Information extracted from financial derivatives on interest rates is commonly used to forecast movements in such rates. Yet, such an extraction generally assumes that agents are risk-neutral. Thus, it might be useful to account for their risk-aversion when doing forecasts. This can be done...

Our interest is to understand the costs of deflation. Thus, we explore the extent to which deflationary risks have surged in a selected set of European economies. To that end, we develop a simple consumption-based asset pricing model and, based on it, we estimate a(n) (in)deflation risk premium....

We explore the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations, and seigniorage-financed fiscal deficits in Mexico. To do so, we estimate the model in Sargent, Williams, and Zha (2009) using Mexican CPI inflation data. This model features dual expected inflation equilibriums and regime switching...

The COVID-19 crisis has been, above all, a tragic public health crisis. It has entailed an enormous effort to respond to the demand for health services. In it, fiscal authorities have led the economic policy responses. For their part, central banks responded swiftly by easing their monetary...

We are seeking to understand the costs of deflation. To that end, we assess the extent to which deflationary risks have surged in a selected group of European economies. Specifically, we develop a simple consumption-based asset pricing model and, based on it, we estimate a(n) (in)deflation risk...

This paper studies how inflation as a macroeconomic indicator affects nominal bond prices. I consider an economy with a representative agent with Epstein- Zin preferences. Regime switching affects the state-space capturing in°ation and consumption growth. Thus, the agent is concerned about the...

This paper, first, reviews briefly the literature on the term structure of interest rates, citing some of the most important studies done on the topic for the Mexican case in the last years. In addition, the development of the government debt market is described. Second, evidence against the...

This paper presents an analysis of the expected inflation distribution based on the surveys made to economic analysts in the private sector, by Banco de México. Conceptually, the analysis can be divided into three aspects: level, dispersion, and skewness, of expected inflation. It is...