and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation … uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply … a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after …

and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation … uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply … a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after …

and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation … uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply … a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after …

mainly the imposition of a highly unrealistic prior for the global impact price elasticity of oil supply. Once identification … uncertainty about the global price elasticity of oil supply is accounted for by specifying a prior more in line with extraneous …