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Linear GARCH(1,1) and threshold GARCH(1,1) processes are established as regularly varying, meaning their heavy tails are Pareto like, under conditions that allow the innovations from the, respective, processes to be skewed. Skewness is considered a stylized fact for many financial returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803123
This study proposes a new approach for estimating value at risk (VaR). This approach combines quasi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007458
obtain significantly more data points for the estimation of the respective risk measures. The presented methodology in the α …Weekly, quarterly and yearly risk measures are crucial for risk reporting according to Basel III and Solvency II. For … sufficient in order to estimate Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall sufficiently, given confidence levels of 99.9% and 99 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827639
This paper revisits the performance of frequently used risk forecasting methods, such as the Value-at-Risk models. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925488
Standard realized volatility (RV) measures estimate the latent volatility of an asset price using high frequency data with no reference to how or where the estimate will subsequently be used. This paper presents methods for “tailoring” the estimate of volatility to the application in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255167
. The method is applied to Value-at-Risk forecasting with (skewed) Student's t distributions and a time-varying degrees of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332948
for tail risk through evaluation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) accuracy. Our results show that crude … their corresponding two-moment ones. We adopt CF3 to disentangle skewness effects from kurtosis in tail risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405890
The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information … available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and … extreme value distribution of risk. We use a rich data set from the US equity market to explore when this additional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214142
This paper proposes efficient estimators of risk measures in a semiparametric GARCH model defined through moment … when estimating error quantiles. In order to prevent this efficiency loss in quantile estimation, we propose a quantile …. At the same time, the efficiency gain in error quantile estimation hinges on the efficiency of estimators of the variance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105447
This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock … is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk … models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011855291