The Basel Accord assumes an inverse relationship between the probability of default and the asset correlation parameter, with the latter being responsible for modeling the degree of cyclicality of default rates. Previous empirical studies that embedded the formula of the Basel Accord into a...

Accounting standards require that financial institutions must measure default risk with respect to the full maturity of a financial instrument. This requires forecasting of future default probabilities. The forecast of future default probabilities concerns two aspects: forecasting macroeconomic...

The accounting standards of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (US-GAAP) require from financial institutions to consider multiple macroeconomic scenarios when calculating loan loss provisions. At present, however,...

Accounting standards require that financial institutions must measure default risk with respect to the full maturity of a financial instrument. This requires forecasting of future default probabilities. The forecast of future default probabilities concerns two aspects: forecasting macroeconomic...

Accounting standards require from financial institutions to consider and forecast multiple macroe- conomic scenarios when calculating loan loss provisions. Loan loss provisions protect a financial institutions against losses. But how to determine objectively the number of scenarios and to...

Financial institutions and rating agencies routinely monitor the discriminatory power of credit ratings so that potential weaknesses are detected early. This article presents an empirical study, that shows that the higher the level of default rates, the lower the expected discriminatory power of...

Credit ratings are expert systems which assess the likelihood of a borrower to default. The Basel Accord allows banks to base regulatory capital requirements on the default probability of a rating. Banks must prove that the employed default probabilities are valid estimates. Since in credit risk...