This paper introduces a new out-of-sample forecasting methodology for monthly market returns using the variance risk premium (VRP) that is both statistically and economically significant. This methodology is motivated by the `beta representation,' which implies that the market risk premium is...

This study examines the relationship between dividend yield and stock returns for firms in the United Arab Emirates, where there are no taxes on dividend incomes and capital gains. Following methods of Black and Scholes (1974) and Litzenberger and Ramaswamy (1979), we find that yield...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

Does factor momentum drive the stock price momentum? Motivated by the recent findings from the United States, we revisit this relationship across 51 countries. The evidence on factor momentum's ability to capture the stock momentum profits depends fundamentally on methodological and dataset...

Does factor momentum drive the stock price momentum? Inspired by the recent findings from the United States, we revisit this relationship across 51 markets. The factor momentum effect remains strong—both within and across countries—regardless of typical drivers of return predictability....

This paper examines short sales transaction volumes on the first trading day of 610 initial public offerings (IPOs) from 2011 to 2015. The tests provide evidence of informed trading immediately at the IPO. Results reveal that short selling volume on the first trading day of the IPO is...

This study shows that weather-based indicators of mood impact perceptions of mispricing and trading decisions of institutional investors. Using survey and disaggregated trade data, we show that relatively cloudier days increase perceived overpricing in individual stocks and the Dow Jones...

This paper examines if firms with the most racially diverse employees enjoy superior benefits and performance above the market average. The problem of the study is to analyze risk premiums and risk-adjusted excess returns of a portfolio of firms with most diverse employees in the United States...

Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...