This paper proposes and tests an investment-flow based explanation for three empirical findings about return predictability -- the persistence of mutual fund performance, the "smart money" effect, and stock price momentum. Motivated by prior studies, I construct a measure of demand shocks to...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

I document a new stylized fact: the higher the degree of institutional ownership (IO) in a portfolio, the more time-varying expected returns rather than changes in expected dividend growth drive changes in its valuation. Empirical evidence suggests that institutions' time-varying sensitivity to...

I investigate the importance of local demand shocks on excess comovements and return predictability for 4560 twin-pairs of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) from 15 country-pairs. The returns on ETFs traded in the same country comove excessively with one another. These comovements are stronger for...

This paper uses the correlation of money flow among mutual funds to forecast the skewness of stock returns. We show that asset returns are highly negatively skewed when their mutual fund owners experience correlated liquidity shocks. In addition, stocks with high mutual fund ownership are more...

We explain stock mispricing linked to long-term expectations of earnings growth in terms of managerial manipulation in high-growth conglomerates. Manipulation does not affect analysts’ forecasts of conglomerate earnings, which are more accurate relative to pseudo-conglomerates. The combined...

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean-variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This chapter reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset-pricing models where lagged variables serve as...

Identifying firms linked economically through the comovement of the credit rating of their corporate bonds, we find that a long-short strategy for stocks based on the link generates a risk-adjusted alpha of 0.62 percent per month, which cannot be explained by industry, customer-supplier, single-...

Max Pain price is the strike price at which the total payoff of all options (calls and puts) written on a particular stock, and with the same expiration date, is the lowest. We construct a measure of (potential) Max Pain gain/loss, sort stock prices according to this measure, and find that a...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...