The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …

We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism … their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for …