The return on composite investment instruments takes the form of weighted-average, derived from the performance of at least two economic indicators. Three allocation experiments illustrate that prospective investors tend to valuate composites "by-tranche", consistently violating the rational...

The field-based experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from more than 100 competent investors at the pick of the financial crisis. The average annual return on 117 portfolios was 5.2% with 55% profitability rate. Prior self confidence emerges as the...

The experimental approach is applied to explore the value of unidentified historical information in stock-return prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross section and time from historical S&P500 data. Subjects were requested to predict returns or select stocks from 12 preceding...

The field experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from competent investors in late 2008 where stock prices shrunk by 50%. Positions were closed after three months and the four-factor model was applied to characterize strategies and derive risk-adjusted...

The experimental approach was applied to test the value of historical return series in technical prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross-sectionally and over time from S&P500 records and participants were asked to predict the 13th realization from 12 preceding returns. The...