If asset returns are predictable, then rational expectations and the arithmetic of budget constraints together imply that these predictable changes in returns should affect current consumption. This paper presents a new framework linking consumption, income, and observable assets to expectations...

We show in an exchange economy with liquidity constraints that the volume of trade and asset prices depend on both the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank and on the liquidity of assets and commodities. As a result, monetary aggregates are informative for the assessment of economic...

We discuss whether stock returns in Spain are predictable using a proxy for the logarithm of the consumption-aggregate wealth ratio, specifically the deviations of the common trend in consumption, labor income, and household asset holdings. The predictability regression used is based on...

This paper presents a new alternative diffusion model for asset price movements. In contrast to the popular approach of Brownian Motion it proposes Deterministic Diffusion for the modelling of stock price movements. These diffusion processes are a new area of physical research and can be created...

Market sentiment is increasingly seen as a key factor driving the movement of asset prices. This paper develops two indicators to measure investors' attitude towards risk in the Hong Kong stock market: a) a risk appetite index and b) an investment sentiment index. We find that although the risk...

Since Flood and Garber (1980), the debate surrounding speculative bubbles has never subsided. A key obstacle to resolve this issue is the identification problem. A bubble is usually inferred from some assumed fundamental determinants of a price. These assumptions could be over-simplified....

A copula approach is adopted to examine the extreme return-volume relationship in six emerging East-Asian equity markets. The empirical results indicate that the return-volume dependence is significant and asymmetric at extremes for all six East-Asian markets. In particular extremely high...

We propose a generalization of the Shirakawa (1991) model to capture the jump component in fixed income markets. The model is formulated under the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework, and allows the presence of a Wiener noise and a finite number of Poisson noises, each associated with a...

We present results of an experiment on expectation formation in an asset market. Participants to our experiment must provide forecasts of the stock future return to computerized utility-maximizing investors, and are rewarded according to how well their forecasts perform in the market. In the...

Notwithstanding the recognized importance of traders’ expectations in characterizing the observed market dynamics, for instance the formation of speculative bubbles and crashes on financial markets, little attention has been devoted so far by economists to a rigorous study of expectation...