The field experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from competent investors in late 2008 where stock prices shrunk by 50%. Positions were closed after three months and the four-factor model was applied to characterize strategies and derive risk-adjusted...

A field experiment revealed 3 forms of unrealistic optimism in skilled investors’ interval predictions of future stock returns. The judgmental intervals were about 50% shorter than realized spreads in recent 3–6months histories, suggesting that “underestimation of volatility” persists...

Class and field surveys revealed that personal inclination to take structured lottery-risk significantly correlates with optimism in financial forecasting. Trait optimism reflects in return predictions for successful and problematic stocks, in likelihood assessments of specific events, and even...