In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European...

I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in...

With the advent of big data in economics machine learning algorithms become more and more appealing to economists. Despite some attempts of establishing artificial neural networks in in the early 1990s, only little is known about their ability of estimating causal effects in policy evaluation....

Segmentation, the process of dividing a target market into sub-sections, is widely used in the equity markets to help investors limit or increase exposure to a set of stocks with specific common risk and economic characteristics, which underlies the philosophy of diversification. Traditional...

This paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for prediction and nowcasting with panel data consisting of series sampled at different frequencies. Motivated by the empirical problem of predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with macroeconomic, financial,...

Data driven companies effectively use regression machine learning methods for making predictions in many sectors. Cloud-based Azure Machine Learning Studio (MLS) has a potential of expediting machine learning experiments by offering a convenient and powerful integrated development environment....

Lawrence R. Klein (September 14, 1920 – October 20, 2013), Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences in 1980, was one of the leading figures in macro-econometric modeling. Although his contributions to forecasting using simultaneous equations macro models were very well known, his contributions to...

We present a macroeconomic trend extrapolation approach that utilizes all economic fundamentals of different time periods simultaneously in the aggregate market. We demonstrate that the trend-pooling method statistically and economically outperforms the historical average that assumes a constant...