The rate of information diffusion and consequently price discovery, is conditional upon not only the design of the market microstructure, but also the informational structure. This paper presents a market microstructure model showing that an increasing number of information hierarchies among...

Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange are the most liquid instruments for trading crude oil, which is the world’s most actively traded physical commodity. Under normal market conditions, traders can easily find counterparties for their trades, resulting in an efficient market...

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price...

The method of reconstructing an n-dimensional system from observations is to form vectors of m consecutive observations, which for m 2n, is generically an embedding. This is Takens's result. The Jacobian methods for Lyapunov exponents utilize a function of m variables to model the data, and the...

Among analysts, technical trading rules are widely used for forecasting security returns. Recent literature provides evidence that these rules may provide positive profits after accounting for transaction costs. This would be contrary to the theory of the efficient market hypothesis which states...

We examine a recent set of high-frequency spot EUR-USD foreign exchange transaction data from an electronic foreign exchange market. Our framework is based on a continuous time-sequential microstructure trade model that measures the market makers beliefs directly. We present evidence of the...

Fundamental spot exchange rate models preclude the existence of asymmetric information in foreign exchange markets. This article critically investigates the possibility that private information arises in the spot foreign exchange market. Using a rich dataset, we first empirically detect...

In this paper we examine how the use of extreme value theory yields collateral requirements that are robust to extreme fluctuations in the market price of the asset used as collateral. These requirements are robust in the sense that they are able to adjust to reflect the tail behavior of the...

This paper develops a wavelet (spectral) approach to test the presence of a unit root in a stochastic process. The wavelet approach is appealing, since it is based directly on the different behavior of the spectra of a unit root process and that of a short memory stationary process. By...