Adam Smith was the first economist or mathematician in history to present an explicit, detailed, interval estimate approach to probability in an application involving the economic analysis of occupational choice.In general, the expected value and/or expected utility (subjective expected utility)...

J M Keynes's wide ranging discussions of interval estimates and their application in chapter III of the A Treatise on Probability (TP,1921) was mistaken by Frank Ramsey to be a discussion of ordinal estimation in 1922 and 1926. Ramsey completely misunderstood how Keynes's logical theory of...

Bertrand Russell gives an excellent review of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability. It is what one would expect from the Twentieth Century’s top philosopher. Russell concentrates on Parts I, II and III of the TP and shows that Keynes had done a spectacular piece of path breaking work. Russell...

C. D. Broad presents an excellent, overall view of how the A Treatise on Probability (1921) was written and constantly checked by internationally recognized and acclaimed philosophers and mathematical logicians, such as Bertrand Russell, Alfred North Whitehead, John Nevile Keynes, C. D. Broad...

Harold Jeffreys’ overall assessment of J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability, 1921, requires a reader to consider, not only his official review in Nature, 1922, but also the comments in his books, Scientific Inference, 1931 and Theory of Probability, 1939, as well as the second edition of...

Arne Fisher attempted a cover up of an important footnote in chapter 29 of the A Treatise on Probability (1921), in which Keynes made it clear that he was not going to use the modern Method of Moments, which used a Moment Generating Function approach based on a Taylor Series expansion very...

S. Stigler’s University of Chicago view of J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability, that only its literary style recommends it to a potential reader, is based entirely on a completely worthless book review written by Ronald Fisher in 1923. However, Stigler is an excellent example of a...