In this paper we pursue an approach based on economic theory to illustrate possible shortcomings of widely used detrending methods. We analyze a simple model of economic growth and business cycles in which investment and technical progress are stochastic. The Hodrick-Prescott and the Baxter-King...

We highlight herding of investors as one major risk factor that is typically ignored in statistical approaches to portfolio modelling and risk management. Our survey focuses on smart-beta investing where such methods and investor herding seem particularly relevant but its negative effects have...

Our paper forecasts the expected recovery rates of defaulted Italian mortgage loans backed by either residential or commercial real estate. We apply an exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to model the price dynamics at the provincial and regional level, and two haircut models to estimate the...

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and...

The paper examines questions of local asymptotic stability of randomdynamical systems. Results concerning stochastic dynamics ingeneral metric spaces, as well as in Banach spaces, are obtained. Theresults pertaining to Banach spaces are based on the linearization ofthe systems under study. The...