This paper proposes a nonparametric quantile regression (NP-QR) and a partially linear additive QR (PLA-QR) for modelling recovery rates (RR). Using Moody's Recovery Database, we uncover two novelties of the NP-QR model. First, the local constant estimation of NP-QR model captures the key...

This paper describes an empirical investigation into the predictive ability of four credit scoring models as applied to US personal loans. The models tested include the Logit model (LM), the divergence – a discriminant – method (DVM), neural networks (NN), and the generalized additive model...

This paper introduces a new specification for the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model for the realized volatility of S&P500 index returns. In this new model, the coefficients of the HAR are allowed to be time-varying with unknown functional forms. We propose a local linear method for...

This paper develops a method for forecasting a nonstationary time series, such as GDP, using a set of high-dimensional panel data as predictors. To this end, we use what is known as a factor augmented regression [FAR] model that contains a small number of estimated factors as predictors; the...

We develop a method for constructing prediction intervals for a nonstationary variable, such as GDP. The method uses a factor augmented regression [FAR] model. The predictors in the model includes a small number of factors generated to extract most of the information in a set of panel data on a...