A long criticism on the usefulness of the traditional CAPM model has been raised in the vast literature of arbitrage pricing models that propose several risk factors on firm fundamentals or investigate the stochastic properties of stock returns' distributions, (Fama and French (2004)). However,...

We introduce a new meaure of risk appetite in financial markets, based on the cross sectional behavior of excess returns. Turning them into probabilities through a Markov Switching model, we define one global risk appetite measure as the cross-sectional average of the individual probabilities...

In this paper I investigate financial markets with drift and volatility uncertainties. Appropriate definitions of arbitrage for super and sub-hedging strategies are presented such that the super and sub-hedging prices are reasonable. Especially the condition of arbitrage for sub-hedging strategy...

We analyze the US Corporate Investment Grade (IG) credit risk premium, as represented by the average excess return of US corporate IG bonds over duration-matched US Treasuries. Over the period January 1973 through April 2018, this credit excess return averaged 60 bps p.a. (implying a stand-alone...

Returns to both traditional and risk-managed momentum strategies are non-normal, reducing the efficacy of the Sharpe ratio as an evaluation tool. To account for the higher moments of the return distribution, we evaluate momentum using the framework of myopic loss aversion. Under this framework,...

The term “equity premium puzzle” was coined in 1985 by economists Rajnish Mehra and Edward C. Prescott. The equity premium puzzle in considered one of the most significant questions in finance. A number of papers have explored the fundamental questions of why the premium exists and has not...

A popular strategy to assess mutual funds is to look at past returns and rank funds based on their risk and return characteristics. This simple approach has its advantages but it is uni-dimensional in nature and misses important characteristics that may impact future returns. We propose...

Long-term country equity premium forecasts based on a cross-sectional global factor model (CS-GFM), where factors represent compensation for risks proxied by valuation and financial variables, are superior, statistically and economically, from forecasts based on time-series prediction models...

We use unique institutional securities holdings data to examine the trading behaviour of delegated institutional capital and its impact on bond risk premia. We show that institutional fund managers trade strongly procyclically: they actively move into higher yielding, longer duration and lower...