This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment in commodity-exporting countries to commodity price shocks. First, I estimate a heterogenous panel SVAR using data from 22 commodity-exporting economies spanning the period 1980-2017. I find that commodity terms of trade shocks are an important...

We find the optimal target values for fiscal rules and measure their aggregate effects using a model of sovereign default. We calibrate the model to an economy that pays a significant sovereign default premium when the government is not constrained by fiscal rules. For different levels of the...

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile,Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps:(i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-tradeshocks and (ii) an event study of the...

In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to cope with shocks, such as COVID-19. This...

Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the...

We use a sovereign default model to study the effects of introducing limits to the decision-making capabilities of governments-fiscal rules. We show that optimal limits to the debt level vary greatly across parameterizations of the model that deliver different levels of debt tolerance. In...

Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the...