We study the dynamics of price indices for major U.S. cities using panel econometric methods and find that relative price levels among cities mean revert at an exceptionally slow rate. In a panel of 19 cities from 1918 to 1995, we estimate the half-life of convergence to be approximately nine...

This paper attributes the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle, which we characterize as the low adjusted R-squared in short-horizon predictive regressions, to omitted `third-country' variables. Using a three-country DSGE exchange rate model, we identify channels through which shocks originating in...

When central banks set nominal interest rates according to an interest rate reaction function, such as the Taylor rule, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation differentials and output gap differentials. In this...

We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...

We decompose the household saving rate into precautionary and non-precautionary components. When applied to Chinese households, who save 30% of disposable income, the precautionary motive accounts for two-thirds of that saving rate. For some admissible parameter values, the saving rate increases...

We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...