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This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848428
We apply extreme value theory to assess the tail dependence between three currency crises measures and 18 economic indicators commonly used for predicting crises. In our pooled sample of 46 countries in the period 1974-2008, we find that nearly all pairs of variables are asymptotically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115235
This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that were available at the moment predictions are to be made. The study analyzes currency crises in eight Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, distinguishing an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011729115
Purpose – Recent empirical studies have reached mixed results on the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises. We argue that this relationship is likely to depend both on whether controls are primarily on the degrees of financial liberalization and on the stability of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858842
This paper finds evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments‘ popularity, are a good predictor of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises are often “political booms gone bust” events. The result is robust to controlling for other potential predictors of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824858
Asia's economy, Thailand in particular, was booming when the financial crises hit in the 1990s. However, troubles were brewing underneath the seemingly buoyant economy. With a fragile financial system and ineffective domestic government responses to these troubles, an exchange rate crisis took...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970172
Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paperstudies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to thecase of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currencycrisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Severalprincipal indicators of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314185
In emerging markets, policies for preventing and managing financial crises should be understood following the standard open economy macroeconomics text treatment. This, however, will prevent us from fully comprehending how to deal with these crises. To deal with financial crises in emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014198508
This paper proposes and applies an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities of emerging and developing economies to the global financial and economic crisis. The analytical framework identifies six different channels of vulnerability to the global financial and economic crisis and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157487
This paper documents a set of stylized facts about leverage and financial fragility in the non-financial corporate sector in emerging markets since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Corporate debt vulnerability indicators prior to the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) attributed to corporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956862