We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2015. Our results indicate that sizable predictability...

In this paper we provide evidence of exchange rate predictability for a selected emerging market economy (EME) at intermediate horizons, arguably, the most relevant for policy purposes. This is important because the existing literature on exchange rate predictability has mainly focused on...

The research proposes a new theoretical model and re-evaluates the Marshall-Lerner condition at the level of disaggregation of a digit according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) for exports and imports from Peru using unbalanced panel data for the period 1980-2010. Using...

In this work we extend a De Jure measure of capital account restrictions, previously assembled by Miniane (2004) for 34 economies, to a set of 181 countries for the period 1996-2005. Additionally, having in mind the pitfalls of this indicator, we propose two new measures. The first excludes...