The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the key determinants of intra- and extra-euro area imports. Using a simultaneous equation estimation framework, and pooling the data across nine euro area countries as an approximation of the euro area, we estimate intra- and extra-euro...

This paper asks two questions. First, can we detect empirically whether the shocks recovered from the estimates of a structural VAR are truly structural Second, can the problem of nonfundamentalness be solved by considering additional information? The answer to the first question is “yes”...

The Bayesian Estimation, Analysis and Regression toolbox (BEAR) is a comprehensive (Bayesian) (Panel) VAR toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis. BEAR is a MATLAB based toolbox which is easy for non-technical users to understand, augment and adapt. In particular, BEAR includes a...

This paper discusses a longstanding debate between two empirical approaches to macroeconomics: the econometrics program represented by Lawrence R. Klein, and the statistical economics program represented by Milton Friedman. I argue that the differences between these two approaches do not consist...

A review of Andrés Álvarez and Juan Santiago Correa's book on the history of political and economic ideas in Colombia during the first century of the republic.

While there is much that is wrong with macroeconomics today, most critiques of the state of macroeconomics are off target. Current macroeconomic research is not mindless DSGE modelling filled with ridiculous assumptions and oblivious of data. Rather, young macroeconomists are doing vibrant,...

This paper analytically solves a heterogeneous agent model with idiosyncratic shocks to marginal utility of consumption and explores the effects of the borrowing constraint on the price of the asset, the composition of borrowers and lenders in the credit market, and wealth inequality. Results...

In this paper we propose to use the common trends of the Mexican economy in order to predict economic activity one and two steps ahead. We exploit the cointegration properties of the macroeconomic time series, such that, when the series are I(1) and cointegrated, there is a factor...

The description of the dynamics and fluctuations of macro variables remains one of the most exciting problems of financial economics. This paper models macro variables via the description of transactions between agents. We use risk ratings x of agents as their coordinates in the economic space....

This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Hartz IV reform in Germany, which reduced the generosity of long-term unemployment benefits. We use a model with different unemployment durations, where the reform initiates both a partial effect and an equilibrium...