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We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780495
-price dynamics to diagnose financial bubbles by providing three main innovations. First, we introduce the quantile regression to the …\textsuperscript{TM} and Trust\textsuperscript{TM} indicators that enrich considerably the diagnostic of bubbles. Using extensive synthetic … signals, a detailed analysis of the "S\&P 500 1987" bubble and the application to 16 historical bubbles, we show that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011412424
crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles. We assume that crashes tend …, which has been previously proposed as a general definition of bubbles. Our bubble model also allows for a sequence of small …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865575
(and rally) discrete jump distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles. The RE condition implies that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899594
It is empirically noticeable that bubbles do not burst but deflate over time. This paper brings some theoretical … foundations to this observation. Using multi-agent-based simulations, the limited-arbitrage theory of the risk of synchronisation … and a measure of bubble crashes, it is possible to demonstrate that bubbles deflate. The agents are not able to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902853
financial crisis. The effect of bubbles on stock and housing markets and their transmission to the domestic real economy and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336205
Building on the notion that bubbles are transient self-fulfilling prophecies created by positive feedback mechanisms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619422
Financial bubbles are subject to debate and controversy. However, they are not well understood and are hardly ever … specific traces, bubbles may be recognised in advance: that is, before they burst. In this paper, we will explain the mechanism … behind financial bubbles in an intuitive way. We will show how the log-periodic power law emerges spontaneously from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411859
Chapter Summary: We consider the recent financial crisis as an overlapping sequence of interdependent financial bubbles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008797062
This paper applies the log-periodic power law model to study the recent boom and bust episode of Bitcoin. We find that the parameter estimates for the model before the crash are quite unstable over time and across estimation windows. We argue that this lack of stability in the parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918243