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Galvanized by the claims of Greenwood et al. in Bubbles for Fama that “a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio …, people have not come up with ways of identifying bubbles”, we present significant evidence to the contrary of both statements … price growth qualified by LPPLS: (i) bubbles followed by a large drawdown or crash, and (ii) price catch-up followed by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800716
Using an agent-based model (ABM) with fundamentalists and chartists, prone to develop bubbles and crashes, we … demonstrate the usefulness of direct market intervention by a policy maker, documenting strong performance in preventing bubbles … bubbles by forming an expectation of the future return of the risky asset in the form of an exponential moving average of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271219
-augmented benchmarks in out-of-sample tests. These results offer new insights into the understanding of bubbles and lay the foundation for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355395
We propose a novel class of models in which the crash hazard rate is determined by a function of a non-local estimation of mispricing. Rooted in behavioral finance, the non-local estimation embodies in particular the characteristic of "anchoring" on past price levels and the "probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800780
Using household survey data, we document evidence of a loosening of credit standards in Euro area countries that experienced a property price boom-and-bust cycle. Borrowers in these countries exhibited significantly higher loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios in the run up to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978833
price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought … the bubbles in the sample. Therefore, the paper suggests a combination approach of different bubble indicators which helps … to account for the uncertainty around start and end dates of asset price bubbles. Additionally, the paper then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300629
that asset booms, bubbles and busts continue posing a threat to financial stability despite financial markets becoming …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941863
bubbles continue to threaten economic stability despite financial markets becoming more informationally-efficient, more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026923
It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003893151
We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010443041