we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the …-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation … forecasts appears a much less important driver of bond premia. …

This paper investigates bond risk premia in the framework of predictive systems. Different from the traditional linear … deliver stronger evidence of predictability than linear predictive models. Furthermore, bond risk premia inferred by …

We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with a rolling … estimate of the mean realized jump size - identified from high-frequency bond returns using the bi-power variation technique … the conditional distribution of excess bond returns is affected by a state variable that does not lie in the span of the …