We analyze the impact of US macroeconomic surprises and forecaster heterogeneity on the USD/EUR exchange rate and US and German long-term interest rates from 1999 to 2014. We show how a direct proxy of macroeconomic disagreement, given by the heterogeneity of beliefs among forecasters regarding...

This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis – a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a...

This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a...