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Keynes's initial, introductory presentation of his inexact measurement, approximation approach to interval valued probability occurred on pages 38-40 of chapter III of the A Treatise on Probability. Keynes used a simple diagram on page 38 to illustrate the non linear and non additive nature of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858777
Ramsey's failure to grasp the interval valued and non additive nature of Keynesian probability assessments in the A Treatise on Probability has led to the misbelief that Keynes's approach was an ordinal one. While Keynes's approach easily handles ordinal probability, the theory of the Treatise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923787
J Derbyshire has recently repeated G L S Shackle's original attack on the concept of probability in a number of recent articles. He adds nothing new to Shackle's arguments of forty to eighty years ago that were completely refuted in 1959 by R. Weckstein, who based his refutation of Shackle on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012933480
The first page of the 18 year old, F. P. Ramsey’s very short three page review, in the Cambridge Magazine issue of Jan., 1922, of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability is comprised of claims about Keynes’s logical theory of probability that, to use L. J. Savage’s characterization of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237897
Sraffa made a number of margin notes in chapter 17 in his copy of the General Theory .Contrary to Joan Robinson’s 1978 claim ,that Sraffa had uncovered logical and mathematical errors in Keynes’s liquidity preference theory of the rate of interest when he generalized his theory in chapter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239107
The crucial differences between Keynes’s and Ramsey’s theories of logical and subjective probability are insurmountable Keynes’s theory is based on propositions, imprecise, Inexact, interval valued probability (or decision weights that are non-additive), and deals with degrees of rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241913
Keynes had successfully applied his theory of logical, imprecise probability in his Indian Currency and Finance(1913), during his time in the British Treasury from 1914 till 1919, and in his The Economic Consequences of the Peace(1919). What Keynes applied was the concept of inexact measurement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243909
Keynes, as he had done in all of his major works either directly or indirectly, from the 1913 Indian Currency and Finance through the General Theory in 1936, always used his A Treatise on Probability method and methodology of inexact measurement and approximation when performing a technical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832552