Stress testing served us well as a crisis management tool, and we see it applied increasingly to peacetime oversight of banks and banking systems. Stress testing is rapidly become the dominant supervisory tool on both sides of the Atlantic. Yet the objectives and certainly the conditions are...

Stress testing proved to be an effective crisis fighting tool in the Great Financial Crisis and has since become widely used by regulators and financial institutions to test resilience to financial and economic shocks. This served two objectives: (1) to identify and remediate banks with a...

The possibility of exact maximum likelihood estimation of many observation-driven models remains an open question. Often only approximate maximum likelihood estimation is attempted, because the unconditional density needed for exact estimation is not known in closed form. Using simulation and...

Banks as financial intermediaries are broadly exposed to a wide range of economic and financial risk factors. We parse climate risk into its two main types: physical risk such as sea level rise and transition risk such as climate related policy changes (e.g., efficiency requirements or carbon...

Stress testing has become a tool of choice in banking for risk managers and regulators alike, and it is used more widely as a way to assess resilience to severely adverse events. Yet even the most creative risk manager would have been challenged to design a scenario that would have adequately...

Market risk management traditionally has focussed on the distribution of portfolio value changes resulting from moves in the midpoint of bid and ask prices. Hence the market risk is really in a “pure” form: risk in an idealized market with no “friction” in obtaining the fair price....