The possibility of exact maximum likelihood estimation of many observation-driven models remains an open question. Often only approximate maximum likelihood estimation is attempted, because the unconditional density needed for exact estimation is not known in closed form. Using simulation and...

Hedge funds are significant players in the U.S. capital markets, but differ from other market participants in important ways such as their use of a wide range of complex trading strategies and instruments, leverage, opacity to outsiders, and their compensation structure. The traditional bulwark...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979:Q1-2003:Q4 period by Dees, de Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith...

Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT generally results in more precise estimates of extreme quantiles and tail probabilities of financial asset returns. This article...

Since 1996, the Bank for International Setdements (BIS) has set the capital level that banks must hold against market risks by a specific formula. This article presents a practical approach for incorporating the effects of asset illiquidity and management response lags in setting regulatory...