forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast … for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and …-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain …

forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast … for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and …-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain …

likelihoods. The model is applied to forecast the population of Germany until 2040. The results indicate a larger future …, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex. We specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of … forecast is quantified as prediction intervals for each subgroup. The underlying models for forecasting the demographic …

-as-you-go systems are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the numbers of pensioners in Germany up to 2040 …

) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The …

residuals shows that the model gives better forecast accuracy than the most commonly used methods in Germany. The modeling … approach performs better than common projection and forecast methods in Germany while integrating the often discussed link … distributions of each ASSFR as well as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The forecast shows, ceteris paribus, a further increase in …

communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose … eventual forecast errors have differential implications on the value of the policy options being considered. Tax rate that is …

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

residuals shows that the model gives better forecast accuracy than the most commonly used methods in Germany. The modeling … approach performs better than common projection and forecast methods in Germany while integrating the often discussed link … distributions of each ASSFR as well as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The forecast shows, ceteris paribus, a further increase in …

) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The …