A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...

For a comprehensive set of 21 equity premium predictors we find dramatic disagreement between out-of-sample predictability results depending on the choice of the sample split date. To resolve this issue we propose reporting in graphical form the out-of-sample predictability criteria for every...

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

We analyze the performance of a comprehensive set of equity premium forecasting strategies. All strategies were found to outperform the mean in previous academic publications. However, using a multiple testing framework to account for data snooping, our findings support Welch and Goyal (2008) in...

We find a negative relationship between the individual stocks' semivariance premia, defined as the difference between the risk-neutral and physical expected downside semivariances, and future stock returns. The high-minus-low hedge portfolio earns the excess return of -64 (-46) basis points per...

I derive two valid forecasting models of the equity premium in monthly frequency, based on little more than no-arbitrage: A “predictability timing” version of partial least squares, given that predictability is theoretically time varying; and a least squares model with realized market...

We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The proposed method signi cantly improves upon the original sum-of-the-parts...

The equity risk premium is generally considered to be a reward that investors earn on top of the prevailing risk-free return, implying that, all else equal, total expected stock returns should increase with the level of the risk-free return. We examine whether this notion is true using long-term...

I derive two valid forecasting models of the equity premium in monthly frequency, based on little more than no-arbitrage: A "predictability timing" version of partial least squares, given that predictability is theoretically time-varying; and a least squares model with realized market premiums...