We test for a unit root in postwar unemployment rates for sixteen OECD countries. When a one-time structural break is incorporated, the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for most of the countries and the measured persistence of unemployment falls dramatically. We then test for multiple...

This paper proposes an explicit test for determining the significance and the timing of slowdowns in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority - though not all - exhibit a significant structural break in their postwar growth rates. We find that (a) most...

This paper uses real-time data to show that inflation and either the output gap or unemployment, the variables which normally enter central banks' Taylor rules for interest-rate-setting, can provide evidence of out-of-sample predictability and forecasting ability for the United States...

An extensive literature that studied the performance of empirical exchange rate models following Meese and Rogoff's [Meese, R.A., Rogoff, K., 1983a. Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit Out of Sample? Journal of International Economics 14, 3-24.] seminal paper has not...