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Option-implied information and predictability of extreme returns
Vilkovz, Grigory; Xiaox, Yan - 2013 - This version: January 28, 2013
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
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Risk Premia and the VIX Term Structure
Johnson, Travis L. - 2018
The shape of the VIX term structure conveys information about the price of variance risk rather than expected changes in the VIX, a rejection of the expectations hypothesis. A single principal component, Slope, summarizes nearly all this information, predicting the excess returns of S&P 500...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937549
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Global variance term premia and intermediary risk appetite
Van Tassel, Peter; Vogt, Erik - 2016
Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523781
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Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets
Bardgett, Chris; Gourier, Elise; Leippold, Markus - 2016
This paper studies the information content of the S&P 500 and VIX markets on the volatility of the S&P 500 returns. We … risk-neutral distributions as well as the term structure of volatility smiles and of variance risk premia. We find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410916
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Pricing of idiosyncratic equity and variance risks
Gourier, Elise - 2016
the variance of idiosyncratic returns. The estimation is performed on a time series of returns and option prices from 2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410917
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The price of the smile and variance risk premia
Gruber, Peter H.; Tebaldi, Claudio; Trojani, Fabio - 2015 - This version: September 8, 2015
In a tractable stochastic volatility model, we identify the price of the smile as the price of the unspanned risks … traded in SPX option markets. The price of the smile reflects two persistent volatility and skewness risks, which imply a …-form and structural models of stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011412294
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Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Zhou, Hao - 2012
uncertainty and recursive utility function. Within such a framework, the negative volatility risk premium implied from option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117074
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A Jump and Smile Ride : Jump and Variance Risk Premia in Option Pricing
Alitab, Dario - 2019
We introduce a discrete-time model for log-return dynamics with observable volatility and jumps. Our proposal extends … the class of Realized Volatility heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma (HARG) processes adding a jump component with time … compensating for equity, volatility, and jump risks, the generating function under the risk-neutral measure inherits analytical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904165
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Jump and Variance Risk Premia in the S&P 500
Neumann, Maximilian - 2019
We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the Price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904829
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Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Zhou, Hao - 2018
This paper reviews the predictability evidence of the variance risk premium: (1) it predicts significant positive risk premiums across equity, bond, currency, and credit markets; (2) the predictability peaks at a few month horizons and dies out afterwards; (3) such a short-run predictability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940510