It does. Depending on the forecast horizon, a one standard deviation increase in our measure for ambiguity about consumption volatility predicts a significant increase in average excess equity returns varying between 200 and 600 basis points annualized. The ambiguity measure we propose is easily...

We analyze pricing models for VIX derivatives which account for the theoretical link to stock options, taking Log-VIX models as a benchmark. We focus on up to three risk factors to model variance risk. To assess the performance of the models, we do not only look at the pricing errors, but also...

We propose a Wishart Affine Stochastic Correlation (WASC) model for the joint dynamics of the SDF in an international economy. We derive exchange rate dynamics and a quasi-closed-form solution for currency option pricing. This solution includes Heston's stochastic volatility model as a special...

We analyze the optimal stock-bond portfolio under both learning and ambiguity aversion. Stock returns are predictable by an observable and an unobservable predictor, and the investor has to learn about the latter. Furthermore, the investor is ambiguity-averse and has a preference for investment...

This paper studies how upstreamness and downstreamness affect industry returns in global value chains. Up- and downstreamness measure the average distance from final consumption and primary inputs, respectively, and are computed from world input-output tables. We show that downstreamness is a...

Close-to-zero interest rates challenge standard economic models in which zero lower bound (ZLB) is absent. We estimate a recursive utility model which features time-varying latent expected real growth, expected inflation, and stochastic inflation volatility. Using an approximate solution to bond...

Traditional life-cycle models conclude that individuals should be fully invested in stocks when young -- in stark contrast to observed stock holdings -- and then gradually replace stocks with bonds as retirement is approaching. We show that a carefully specified and calibrated model of...

This paper studies the volatility-of-volatility (VVIX) term structure. We find that the slope of the VVIX, defined as VVIX' second principal component, predicts excess returns of S&P500 and VIX traddles. Its informational content is incremental to the VIX term structure and the variance risk...

It is often difficult to distinguish among different option pricing models that consider stochastic volatility and/or jumps based on a cross-section of European option prices. This can result in model misspecification. We analyze the hedging error induced by model misspecification and show that...