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understand the impact of macro and microeconomic forces on risk neutral volatility. VIX often increases with macroeconomic news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065496
This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067300
new measure of tail risk, we suggest using a model-free, risk-neutral measure of the volatility of volatility implied by a … four weeks. Furthermore, we find that volatility of volatility risk and its associated risk premium both significantly … contribute to the forecasting power of the VVIX index, and that the predictability largely results from the integrated volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074319
a Brownian motion with stochastic volatility. We derive formulas for conditional default probabilities and credit … spreads. An example for a volatility process is the square root of a Levy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which we show … that jumps in the volatility translate into jumps in credit spreads. We examine the dynamics of the model and provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150888
to model a credit quality process as an Ito integral with respect to a Brownian motion with a stochastic volatility … conditional default probabilities and credit spreads. An example for a volatility process is the square root of a Levy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154080
We model the S&P500 index options dynamics using the CGMY distribution, with independent "up" and "down" return jumps, and diffusive jump intensities. Allowing the up and down parts to be separately parameterised accounts for the dynamic smirk effect, without correlation between returns and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837432
volatility of capital stock is stochastic and driven by shocks. After solving the equilibrium, the fundamental shocks are … volatility surface …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900814
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
We introduce a discrete-time model for log-return dynamics with observable volatility and jumps. Our proposal extends … the class of Realized Volatility heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma (HARG) processes adding a jump component with time … compensating for equity, volatility, and jump risks, the generating function under the risk-neutral measure inherits analytical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904165
We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the Price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904829