Mean reversion, stochastic volatility, convenience yield and presence of jump clustering are well documented salient features of commodity markets, where Asian options are very popular. We propose a model which takes into account all these stylized features. We first state our model under the...

We show the importance of accounting for political risk to understand forward-looking price volatility in agricultural markets. We propose a theoretical model that shows uncertainty about the future world price of staple foods is positively related to the likelihood (and, counterintuitively, is...

This study decomposes a momentum factor (MOM) in the commodity futures market. A high-to-price (HTP) factor generates a higher Sharpe ratio than a price-to-high (PTH) factor. We uncover that the profitability mechanisms across three momentum factors are different. The positive returns on MOM and...

I link deviations from forward-spot parity for currencies and commodities. The key is to think of the U.S. dollar as a “commodity.” When commodity spot prices are too high compared to futures, arbitrageurs will short the commodity and bank dollars. When physical scarcity constrains commodity...

For grain and oilseed futures, deliveries facilitate convergence by allowing for arbitrage between the physical commodity and the “paper” (i.e., futures) markets. A sizeable literature has looked at deliveries to answer questions about price convergence and about the value of options...

Arbitrage and liquidity are interrelated. Liquidity facilitates arbitrageurs’ trading on deviations from the law of one price. However, whether arbitrage opportunity leads to an increase or decrease in liquidity depends on the cause of the deviation. A demand shock leads to greater liquidity,...

This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of volatility of commodity futures. The focus of this paper is on two emerging commodity markets, China and India. It covers commodity futures from different sectors, including agricultural commodity futures, metal futures and oil futures. The...

In order to tackle the non-availability of inflation futures data, we introduce the futures on the CPI proxy (FCP). Compared to over-the-counter inflation-linked derivatives, the FCP is a more accessible tool for inflation forecasting. The time series of the FCP chain is analysed by a two-factor...

We extract implied price densities from wheat derivative prices during the first seven months of the Ukrainian war. Differences between short- and longterm densities indicate that market expectations about the duration of the conflict changed over time. Under simplifying assumptions, we...

This paper explores whether agricultural commodities exhibited super-contango during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the spot price, basis, arithmetic spot price changes, logarithmic spot price changes and arithmetic basis changes of WTI crude, Class III...