for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no … information from inflation options can often produce more accurate inflation forecasts than those based on the Survey of … Professional Forecasters. Second, incorporating oil futures tends to improve short-term inflation and longer-term nominal yield …

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a … small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …

equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*), and term premia. Similar to Bauer and Rudebusch (2020, AER), π* and r …

equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian … approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are cornerstones determining equilibrium yields across maturities and …