performing short-term forecasts of quarterly world GDP growth in real time and computing real-time business cycle probabilities … of quarterly world growth and of the state of the world business cycle on a monthly basis …

provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform …

provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform …

model. The model contains a world factor, country-specific factors, sector-specific factors, and idiosyncratic components … country-factors. The world factor appears to play a minimal role because, when using aggregate data, the world factor captures … in the volatility of world shocks during the globalization period, rather than a lower sensitivity of sectoral growth to …

world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …