This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market...

This paper examines the influence of shocks in the Japanese Nikkei Index and in the U.S. S&P Index on the Australian All-Ordinaries Index. W present results from the application of three models - an autoressive linear model, a GARCH-M model and a non-linear neural network model.

The remarkable economic success of the United States in the 1990s led many observers to talk about a "New Economy". This paper provides an overview of the main issues, including faster productivity growth, the stability of inflation despite very low unemployment, the reduction in output...

In this paper we construct a model of stock market, interest rate and output interaction which is a generalization of the well known 1981 model of Blanchard. We allow for imperfect substitutability between stocks and bonds in the asset market and for lagged portfolio adjustment. The reaction of...

Given standard, transparent assumptions, this paper questions the Wall Street adage that 'timing is everything'. I show that for an Arrow security, a 'small' risk-neutral trader with private information that is conditionally independent of the public information is exactly indifferent about the...

This Occasional Paper provides an overview of the main challenges facing Hong Kong SAR as it continues to become more closely integrated with the mainland of China. Section I provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments and the main policy issues in Hong Kong SAR. Section II...

This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust...

The financial turmoil of the late 1990s prompted a broad search for tools and techniques for detecting and preventing financial crises, and more recent episodes of instability have high lighted the importance of continuous monitoring of financial systems as a tool for preventing crises. This...