This paper tests for the martingale hypothesis in the stock prices of a group of Asian markets. We use new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs. These are non-parametric finite sample tests, which do not rely on large sample theories for statistical inference. This...

This paper provides strong evidence of time-varying return predictability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from 1900 to 2009. Return predictability is found to be driven by changing market conditions, consistent with the implication of the adaptive markets hypothesis. During market...

This study measures the degree of short-horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple-horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return...

We study how market sentiment is dynamically related to a range of risk premia in the short-run, using three measures of sentiment (the implied volatility index, investment advisor sentiment, and individual investor sentiment) and four factor premia (market, size, value, and momentum) for the...

This paper examines return predictability of the U.S. stock market using portfolios sorted by size, book-to-market ratio, and industry. A novel panel variance ratio test is proposed and employed to evaluate time-varying return predictability from 1964 to 2011. It is found that the stock returns...