-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

The rise in inflation in 2021-22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the … near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages. First, the exceptional nature of shocks … resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events drove the surge in inflation and the initial underestimation by …

We analyze the impact of price stability-oriented monetary strategies (inflation targeting — IT — and constraining … exchange rate arrangements) on inflation persistence using a time-varying coefficients framework in a panel of 68 countries … (1993–2013). We show that explicit IT has a stronger effect on taming inflation persistence than implicit IT and is …

We investigate the empirics of the persistence in the inflation series for 13 OECD countries that use an inflation … suggested by Kim and Phillips (2006, 2000) and Phillips (2007). We find that (i) inflation exhibits a fractional behavior over … the entire sample period and, in most cases, in the pre- and post-targeting periods, (ii) the adoption of inflation …

Evidence on the credibility of a central bank's inflation target typically refers to the anchoring of survey …-based measures of inflation expectations. However, both the survey question and the anchoring criteria are only loosely connected to … the actual inflation target used in monetary policy practice. By using the exact wording of the ECB's definition of price …

This paper discusses perceived benefits and disadvantages of direct inflation targeting for economies in transition in … Central Europe. It examines the experience of net inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and of CPI forecast targeting … regimes in Poland, providing specific suggestions for enhancing transparency of monetary policy. Inflation targeting is …