This paper explores stock return predictability by exploiting the cross-section of oil futures prices. Motivated by the principal component analysis, we find the curvature factor of the oil futures curve predicts monthly stock returns: a 1% per month increase in the curvature factor predicts...

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study performance and market timing ability of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs). Design/methodology/approach - The authors use classical regression-based framework and their multi-index, multifactor, and conditional extensions to jointly...

type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>We introduce a novel approach to estimating latent oil risk factors and establish their significance in pricing nonoil securities. Our model, which features four factors with simple economic interpretations, is estimated using both derivative prices and oil-related equity...</p>

We test whether financial fluctuations affect firms' decisions, through their impact on banks' cost of funding. We exploit two shocks to Italian bank CDS spreads and equity valuations: the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the 2010-2012 sovereign debt crisis. Using newly available data linking over...

We construct a unique and comprehensive data set of 19 real-time daily macroeconomic indicators for 11 Eurozone countries, for the 5/11/2009{4/25/2013 period. We use this new data set to characterize the time-varying dependence of the cross-section of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads...

We test whether adverse changes to banks’ market valuations during the financial and sovereign debt crises, and the associated increase in banks’ cost of funding, affected firms’ real decisions. Using new data linking over 3,000 non-financial Italian firms to their bank(s), we find that...

We study the effects on financial markets and real economic activity of changes in risk related to political events and policy announcements in Italy during the 2013-2019 period that saw the rise to power of populist parties. We focus on events that have implications for budgetary policy, debt...