This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...

The balance sheet adjustment in the household sector was a prominent feature of the Great Recession that is widely believed to have held back the cyclical recovery of the US economy. A key question for the US outlook is therefore whether household deleveraging has ended or whether further...

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...

This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently...

We propose a two-stage estimation procedure to identify the effects of time-invariant regressors in a dynamic version of the Hausman-Taylor model. We first estimate the coefficients of the time-varying regressors and subsequently regress the first-stage residuals on the time-invariant regressors...

Using a novel dataset for the US states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of US consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang - a flow...

This paper shows how to incorporate judgment in a decision problem under uncertainty, within a classical framework. The method relies on the specification of a judgmental decision with associated confidence level and application of hypothesis testing. The null hypothesis tests whether marginal...

This paper investigates the joint dynamics of nominal bond yields, real bond yields and dividend yields from the 80s up to the aftermath of the financial crisis by mapping them on a set of macro factors. It builds on an existing discrete time affine Gaussian model of the term structure model of...

This paper presents an estimation of the cost of reducing CO2 emissions as agreed in Kyoto by Annex I countries. Unlike most of the existing literature, this paper focuses on European Union countries' abatement costs and, using a simple model, estimates the role of each EU country within a EU...

This paper reports the results from a contingent valuation study designed to investigate the influence of warm glow in willingness-to-pay responses. Interindividual differences in warm glow motivation are measured through a factor analysis, performed on a list of attitudinal items. The reported...